Study on the Evolution Mechanism of Disaster Chain for Tunneling Crossing Pipelines Based on FTA-BN

Yuqi Zhang; Yanhong Chen; Xun Tang; Xin Zhang

doi:10.47297/taposatWSP2633-456940.20260708

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Study on the Evolution Mechanism of Disaster Chain for Tunneling Crossing Pipelines Based on FTA-BN

Volume 7, Issue 8

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Study on the Evolution Mechanism of Disaster Chain for Tunneling Crossing Pipelines Based on FTA-BN
Study on the Evolution Mechanism of Disaster Chain for Tunneling Crossing Pipelines Based on FTA-BN
Chongqing University of Science and Technology,Chongqing, Chongqing, 401331, China
Vol. 7, Issue 8, Pages: 207-211(2026)
Published：30 August 2026
DOI：10.47297/taposatWSP2633-456940.20260708
Accepted：

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Zhang Yuqi,Chen Yanhong,Tang Xun,et al.Study on the Evolution Mechanism of Disaster Chain for Tunneling Crossing Pipelines Based on FTA-BN[J].Theory and Practice of Science and Technology,2026,07(08):207-211.
DOI：

Zhang Yuqi,Chen Yanhong,Tang Xun,et al.Study on the Evolution Mechanism of Disaster Chain for Tunneling Crossing Pipelines Based on FTA-BN[J].Theory and Practice of Science and Technology,2026,07(08):207-211. DOI： 10.47297/taposatWSP2633-456940.20260708.

摘要

Abstract

Under seismic action

gas transmission pipelines in river-crossing tunnels operate under a special service environment characterized by water filling

high humidity and multiple constraints. Their failure process features a disaster chain with multi-factor coupling and gradual evolution. Traditional fault tree and Bayesian network methods struggle to simultaneously characterize the polymorphism of events and the uncertainty of logical relationships. In this paper

core risk factors are identified from the levels of disaster sources

structural carriers

environmental conditions

constraint systems

pipeline bodies and operating states. A fault tree model with "failure of gas transmission pipeline in river-crossing tunnel under seismic action" as the top event is established and mapped into a Bayesian network. The polymorphism and uncertainty of the network are improved through three-state node definition and the Noisy-Max/Min model. The prior probabilities of 45 root nodes are determined by combining expert evaluation and triangular fuzzy numbers. The failure probability of each node is obtained through stepwise inference

followed by sensitivity analysis. The results show that the failure of constraint components (42.52%) and corrosion (16.32%) constitute the primary failure paths of the system. Seventeen basic events such as concrete cracking of buttresses and overload of shaft elbow supports have the highest sensitivity

all belonging to these two OR-gate paths. Changes in the failure state of constraint components almost determine the overall risk level of the system

which can provide references for seismic risk management and control of this type of pipeline.

关键词

Keywords

references

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