As an important risk management tool in China's steel industry chain

the efficiency of the price discovery function of hot-rolled coil futures directly affects the stability of the real economy. This article proceeds from perspectives such as the efficient market hypothesis and the cost-of-carry theory

and systematically analyzes its price discovery mechanism by combining the price linkage characteristics of China's hot-rolled coil futures and spot markets. The research finds that the hot-rolled coil futures market plays a dominant role in price discovery in the long-term equilibrium

but the short-term price guidance effect is restricted by the regional segmentation of the spot market and policy intervention. Based on this

this article proposes policy recommendations such as improving the market supervision system

optimizing contract design

and promoting the coordinated development of the futures and spot markets

providing theoretical support for enhancing the ability of the futures market to serve the real economy.