Volume 9, Issue 6
University of Western Australia, Western Australia , 6009, Australia
Published：30 June 2025
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Gao Yuhan.Fortescue Metals Group's Advantage: A Comparative Total Return Analysis Against BHP and Rio Tinto for 2025[J].Development Economics of China,2025,09(06):116-121.
Gao Yuhan.Fortescue Metals Group's Advantage: A Comparative Total Return Analysis Against BHP and Rio Tinto for 2025[J].Development Economics of China,2025,09(06):116-121. DOI： 10.47297/wspdecWSP2515-797322.20250906.
This paper examines BHP
Rio Tinto and Fortescue Metals Group(FMG) to determine which company is best positioned to achieve the highest total shareholder return by 31 December 2025. Over the past five years
mining sector was deeply influenced by the global economy significant volatility. iron ore prices moderated through 2024 due to inflation weaker Chinese demand(Reuters
2024; Deloitte
2024). However
steady infrastructure investment in emerging markets and cautious stimulus in China are expected to support demand into 2025(BDO
2025; Mysteel
2024). In this context
FMG's lean cost structure and strategic pivot toward clean energy enhance its return outlook(Fastmarkets
2024; The New Daily
2024).
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Discovery Alert FMG's volume growth and product mix upgrades [EB/OL ] . Discovery Alert , 2024 b. https://discoveryalert.com.au https://discoveryalert.com.au .
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Fastmarkets Iron ore cost comparisons: BHP, Rio Tinto, Fortescue [EB/OL ] . Fastmarkets , 2024 . https://www.fastmarkets.com https://www.fastmarkets.com .
Fitch Ratings Fortescue Metals Group Credit Rating Report [EB/OL ] . Fitch Ratings , 2024 . https://www.fitchratings.com https://www.fitchratings.com .
Fortescue Metals Group ESG and community partnerships overview [EB/OL ] . FMG , 2024 . https://www.fortescue.com https://www.fortescue.com .
GuruFocus WACC and valuation metrics for public companies [EB/OL ] . GuruFocus , 2024 . https://www.gurufocus.com https://www.gurufocus.com .
Kitco FMG and Baowu sign green steel partnership [EB/OL ] . Kitco , 2025 . https://www.kitco.com/news/2025-04-20/fmg-baowu-greensteel https://www.kitco.com/news/2025-04-20/fmg-baowu-greensteel .
Lloyd's List Fortescue's climate governance and decarbonisation efforts [EB/OL ] . Lloyd's List , 2024 . https://www.lloydslist.com https://www.lloydslist.com .
MarketScreener Financial ratio data for mining companies [EB/OL ] . MarketScreener , 2024 . https://www.marketscreener.com https://www.marketscreener.com .
Mysteel China's iron ore supply and demand to loosen in 2024 [EB/OL ] . Mysteel Global , 2024 . https://www.mysteel.net/news/5050465-conf-chinas-iron-ore-supply-demand-to-loosen-in24 https://www.mysteel.net/news/5050465-conf-chinas-iron-ore-supply-demand-to-loosen-in24 .
Reuters China's Iron Ore Imports Hit Record 1.24 Billion Tonnes in 2024 [EB/OL ] . Reuters , 2024 - 04 . https://www.reuters.com https://www.reuters.com .
Rio Tinto Building Better: Our Progress and Actions Following the Juukan Gorge Incident [EB/OL ] . Rio Tinto , 2021 . https://www.riotinto.com/news/releases/2021/Rio-Tinto-publishes-BuildingBetter-report-on-Juukan-Gorge-progress https://www.riotinto.com/news/releases/2021/Rio-Tinto-publishes-BuildingBetter-report-on-Juukan-Gorge-progress .
Rio Tinto Annual report 2021 [EB/OL ] . Rio Tinto , 2022 . https://www.riotinto.com/-/media/content/documents/invest/reports/annual-reports/2021/rtannual-report-strategic-2021.pdf https://www.riotinto.com/-/media/content/documents/invest/reports/annual-reports/2021/rtannual-report-strategic-2021.pdf .
Stockhead FMG expands critical minerals exploration in Canada and Australia [EB/OL ] . Stockhead , 2024 . https://stockhead.com.au https://stockhead.com.au
Stock Analysis Rio Tinto Group (RIO) Financial Performance Overview 2020 – 2024 [EB/OL ] . Stock Analysis , 2025. https://www.stockanalysis.com/stocks/rio/financials/ https://www.stockanalysis.com/stocks/rio/financials/ .
Stocks Down Under FMG FY2024 financial highlights and profitability trends [EB/OL ] . Stocks Down Under , 2024 . https://stocksdownunder.com https://stocksdownunder.com .
Stocks Down Under FMG Financial Performance Review [EB/OL ] . Stocks Down Under , 2024 . https://www.stocksdownunder.com https://www.stocksdownunder.com .
Sustainalytics Fortescue ESG Risk Rating Report [EB/OL ] . Sustainalytics , 2024 . https://www.sustainalytics.com https://www.sustainalytics.com .
The Australian US-China tariff tensions weigh on steel and ore markets [EB/OL ] . The Australian , 2025 . https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/tariff-steel-trade-2025 https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/tariff-steel-trade-2025 .
The New Daily Fortescue Future Industries ramps up green hydrogen investment [EB/OL ] . The New Daily , 2024 . https://thenewdaily.com.au https://thenewdaily.com.au
ValueInvesting . io Discounted cash flow models and WACC estimates [EB/OL ] . ValueInvesting .io, 2024 . https://valueinvesting https://valueinvesting .
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World Steel Association Short range outlook: Global steel demand to grow by 3.2% in 2025 [EB/OL ] . World Steel Association , 2024 . https://www.worldsteel.org/steel-outlook-2025 https://www.worldsteel.org/steel-outlook-2025 .
Yahoo Finance BHP , Rio Tinto & FMG company profiles and financial ratios [EB/OL ] . Yahoo Finance , 2024 . https://finance.yahoo.com https://finance.yahoo.com .
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