Based on a systematic review of the causes of the Fukushima nuclear-contaminated wastewater discharge accident

decision-making processes

and the current status of normalized discharge operations

this study incorporates the objective laws of radionuclide oceanic diffusion

marine bioaccumulation

and ecological succession. Differentiated research scenarios are established according to varying discharge scales

and the changes and disparities in global fishery output

macroeconomic GDP

and seafood trade systems under low

medium

and high emission intensities are systematically analyzed. At the fishery production level

the study focuses on the impacts of different discharge scales on core North Pacific fishing grounds and coastal aquaculture industries

analyzing actual losses including long-term radionuclide deposition

fishery resource decline caused by food chain bioaccumulation

reduced catches

and seafood quality degradation. At the macroeconomic level

the transmission pathways of nuclear pollution shocks along the fishery industry chain—extending to processing

cold-chain logistics

and catering consumption—are analyzed

and the structural losses to coastal economies and global GDP under different emission scales are assessed. At the trade circulation level

the study focuses on dynamic changes in global seafood import/export volumes

trade flows

market shares

and customs clearance costs

with comparative analysis of typical industry phenomena including the contraction of Japanese aquatic exports

trade pressures on Pacific Rim countries

increased substitution exports from non-contaminated fishing areas

and cross-border origin arbitrage trade.On this basis

this study employs a linear regression model as the core analytical tool to thoroughly verify the superimposed negative effects of discharge pollution scale and trade restriction intensity

clarify the multi-layered formation mechanisms of fishery economic losses

and provide effective theoretical support and practical reference for improving global marine ecological governance

aquatic trade regulation

and fishery risk prevention systems.