An Empirical Study on the Impact of China's Land Reserve Special Bond Policy on Provincial Fiscal Revenue in East China: Verification Based on the Difference-in-Differences Method

Peiyi Jiang

doi:10.47297/wspceWSP2516-251925.20250904

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An Empirical Study on the Impact of China's Land Reserve Special Bond Policy on Provincial Fiscal Revenue in East China: Verification Based on the Difference-in-Differences Method

9卷第4期

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An Empirical Study on the Impact of China's Land Reserve Special Bond Policy on Provincial Fiscal Revenue in East China: Verification Based on the Difference-in-Differences Method
An Empirical Study on the Impact of China's Land Reserve Special Bond Policy on Provincial Fiscal Revenue in East China: Verification Based on the Difference-in-Differences Method
Department of Public Administration, University of International Relations, Beijing, 100080, China
2025年9卷第4期页码：129-135
纸质出版：2025-08-30
DOI：10.47297/wspceWSP2516-251925.20250904
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Peiyi Jiang. (2025). An Empirical Study on the Impact of China's Land Reserve Special Bond Policy on Provincial Fiscal Revenue in East China: Verification Based on the Difference-in-Differences Method. 创意经济（英文版）, 9(4), 129-135.

Jiang Peiyi.An Empirical Study on the Impact of China's Land Reserve Special Bond Policy on Provincial Fiscal Revenue in East China: Verification Based on the Difference-in-Differences Method[J].Creative Economy,2025,09(04):129-135.
Peiyi Jiang. (2025). An Empirical Study on the Impact of China's Land Reserve Special Bond Policy on Provincial Fiscal Revenue in East China: Verification Based on the Difference-in-Differences Method. 创意经济（英文版）, 9(4), 129-135. DOI： 10.47297/wspceWSP2516-251925.20250904.

Jiang Peiyi.An Empirical Study on the Impact of China's Land Reserve Special Bond Policy on Provincial Fiscal Revenue in East China: Verification Based on the Difference-in-Differences Method[J].Creative Economy,2025,09(04):129-135. DOI： 10.47297/wspceWSP2516-251925.20250904.

摘要

Abstract

This study examines the impact of China's Land Reserve Special Bond (LRSB) policy on provincial land fiscal revenue using a quasi-experimental approach with the Difference-in-Differences (DID) method. Focusing on the period from 2010 to 2023 in China

the research investigates how LRSB issuance affects local governments' land-related fiscal revenues

including land transfer income and public budgetary dependence on land. Specifically

after the implementation of the policy

there is a significant positive correlation between the effect of increasing fiscal revenue. This effect persists even after controlling for macroeconomic variables (e.g.

GDP growth

urbanization rate). The study contributes theoretically by integrating land finance

public debt

and regional development frameworks

while methodologically advancing the application of DID. This article proposes policy recommendations such as optimizing the issuance and use mechanism of special bonds

narrowing regional disparities

dynamically monitoring policy effects

and coordinating land finance transformation

providing theoretical support and practical reference for improving local government financing mechanisms and sustainable fiscal development.

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references

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