Against the backdrop of the accelerated securitization of the cultural industry

the high volatility of Chinese film industry shares poses a challenge to market stability. This paper constructs a three-dimensional driving system of policy

competition and cultural IP

uses the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model

and combines time-varying parameters (TVP) and long short-term memory network (LSTM) to explore the dynamic impact of multiple factors on the stock prices of the film and television sector. The study found that the lag effect of policy adjustment peaked at 5-7 trading days

with an elastic coefficient of 0.12- 0.15; Import box office diversion of 1% led to a 0.10% decline in the sector's return rate (p<0.05); The release of a phenomenon-level cultural IP could generate an abnormal earnings of 21.3% cumulatively. According to the Risk Transmission Intensity Index (RCSI)

the half-life of the cultural IP shock is 8 trading days and that of the policy shock is 12 trading days.