Driven by the wave of globalization and informatization

the virtual economy has become a key component of the modern economic system

and its dual effects on regional development—significant contributions and potential risks—are increasingly drawing attention. The Yangtze River Delta region

as a benchmark for China's high-quality economic development

exhibits a distinct trend in virtual economy growth. However

the inherent tendency of the virtual economy to "shirk from the real economy and focus on virtual activities

" along with regional development imbalances

poses significant challenges to the validity of traditional economic theories. This paper breaks away from the previous one-dimensional focus on "quantity" and comprehensively examines the value relationship and impact pathways between the virtual economy and the real economy through four dimensions—value creation

resource allocation

risk control

and industrial empowerment—using 12 secondary indicators. Panel data from the three provinces and one municipality in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2010 to 2024 were selected

and methods based on structural equation modeling and SDM models were employed to verify the development effects of the virtual economy from the perspectives of temporal changes and spatial spillovers. The research findings indicate: First

the virtual economy contributes 23.7% to economic growth in the Yangtze River Delta region. Second

the virtual economy demonstrates significant regional differentiation

with major growth poles such as Shanghai

Hangzhou

and Nanjing exhibiting notable spillover effects. Their positive impacts can elevate the virtual economy level of surrounding regions by 1.2–1.8 percentage points

but there are significant differences in virtual economy density between Anhui and the Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai region. Third

the interaction between the virtual economy and the real economy exhibits a pronounced threshold effect: when the virtual economy's growth rate remains below 35% of GDP

its positive impact on the real economy is most significant. Once this threshold is exceeded

the virtual economy may enter a vicious cycle

leading to the accumulation of financial risks.