Using panel data covering 44 countries over the period 2012–2024

this research adopts statistical approaches including panel threshold regression and random forest to explore how digital trade rules affect the mechanism behind global value chain (GVC) restructuring. It reveals that digital trade rules have a notable U-shaped threshold impact on a country's GVC position: when the OECD Digital Services Trade Restrictiveness Index (DSTRI) is under 0.32

regulatory restrictions hinder the improvement of GVC status; once the index exceeds this threshold

the restrictions shift to a facilitative role. Additionally

institutional quality plays a positive moderating part in this relationship. By sector

digital trade rules have a stronger impact on manufacturing than on services

and technology-intensive sectors like semiconductors and electronic information are more responsive to such rules. This study aims to provide empirical reference for countries to optimize the design of digital trade rules and promote GVC upgrading.