Study of the Impact of Geopolitical Uncertainty on Optimal Allocation of Multiple Asset Portfolios

Yanbo Shao

doi:10.47297/wspdecWSP2515-797322.20250908

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Study of the Impact of Geopolitical Uncertainty on Optimal Allocation of Multiple Asset Portfolios

9卷第8期

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Study of the Impact of Geopolitical Uncertainty on Optimal Allocation of Multiple Asset Portfolios
Study of the Impact of Geopolitical Uncertainty on Optimal Allocation of Multiple Asset Portfolios
Shenzhen BIT Moscow State University, Shenzhen, Guangdong, 518000, China
2025年9卷第8期页码：122-127
纸质出版：2025-08-30
DOI：10.47297/wspdecWSP2515-797322.20250908
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Yanbo Shao. (2025). Study of the Impact of Geopolitical Uncertainty on Optimal Allocation of Multiple Asset Portfolios. 发展经济学, 9(8), 122-127.

Shao Yanbo.Study of the Impact of Geopolitical Uncertainty on Optimal Allocation of Multiple Asset Portfolios[J].Development Economics of China,2025,09(08):122-127.
Yanbo Shao. (2025). Study of the Impact of Geopolitical Uncertainty on Optimal Allocation of Multiple Asset Portfolios. 发展经济学, 9(8), 122-127. DOI： 10.47297/wspdecWSP2515-797322.20250908.

Shao Yanbo.Study of the Impact of Geopolitical Uncertainty on Optimal Allocation of Multiple Asset Portfolios[J].Development Economics of China,2025,09(08):122-127. DOI： 10.47297/wspdecWSP2515-797322.20250908.

摘要

Abstract

In recent years

global geopolitical conflicts have occurred frequently

and the Russia-Ukraine conflict has had a profound impact on the stability of the international financial market. This article uses this as an entry point to use the mean – variance model based on monthly data on major global stock indexes and commodities from 2019 to 2023. Empirical analysis of the impact of geopolitical uncertainty on multi-asset portfolio allocation The study found that after the conflict

the stock market as a whole showed declining returns and rising risks

while commodities

especially energy and gold assets

showed outstanding hedging attributes

and the minimum variance combination before and after the conflict and the maximum Sharpe ratio combination There are significant differences in weight distribution This difference reflects the investor's asset allocation adjustment logic under extreme uncertainty

and this paper theoretically expands the applicability of traditional portfolio models in geopolitical contexts while providing a useful reference at the practical level for investors to diversify allocations and risk hedging in times of crisis.

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references

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